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Thread: Brexit triggered - The Brexit plan

  1. #61
    Super Moderator Misrule's Avatar
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    So the Brexit circus grinds along; the endgame is getting closer.

    The vote on the deal negotiated with the EU, due to have been held in December, finally took place last night and resulted in a thumping for the government. They didn't just lose, they got clobbered - 432 against 202. That's the biggest loss for a government in modern UK history. The immediate conclusion is that the negotiated deal is dead and there is no point the UK seeking "clarifications" or codicils to make it acceptable. Immediately after that defeat, the leader of the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn, tabled a motion of no confidence in the government which will be voted on this evening. Expectations are that the government will win, leaving us exactly in the same mess as before. However, with the deal off the table, the options would narrow.
    The two extreme options - leave without a deal, or stay in the EU - are still possible.
    The shape of the negotiated deal was clear once the UK had declared its "red lines" - out of the customs union, no freedom of movement, out from ECJ, etc. However, a new government, with or without an election, could ask the EU to start the negotiations again but with a very different set of criteria from the UK side. Possible? Yes. But, it relies on all 27 EU members agreeing. That might be tricky and there would be a huge credibility gap to be made up. Frankly, most EU members are amazed and horrified at the UK's approach over the past 2 years. A lot of good will has been eroded.
    In the meantime, the confidence vote will determine whether the current government continues or an election is held. Of course, an election might not make things any clearer or easier and would take us past the March 29 Brexit date.

    Oh, this circus has some way to run yet. It is a wonderful tale of politics as the art of the possible (and the not possible, now).

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  3. #62
    Die Another Day BondJmsBond's Avatar
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    It's interesting how England deals with leaders, one can get voted out and/or new elections can be held, with shifting coalitions etc.

    I guess the people who wish to remain EU will try for a rescinding of withdrawal, and/or hold a new referendum, try to delay the date of withdrawal so a new deal can be made....

    There may not be time for anything major at this point so a delaying tactic is probably called for.

    Fun stuff over there, I feel for the Brits, hope it comes out ok for everyone.

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  5. #63
    Super Moderator Misrule's Avatar
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    Now the Uk government is actually talking to other politicians to see what sort of Brexit might be agreeable.
    <sigh> Could they not have done that 2 years ago? Better late than never, I suppose.

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  7. #64

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    Quote Originally Posted by Misrule View Post
    Now the Uk government is actually talking to other politicians to see what sort of Brexit might be agreeable.
    <sigh> Could they not have done that 2 years ago? Better late than never, I suppose.
    The problem seems to be theat the Prime Minister wants to talk to them about why they should be voting for her deal and not much else.
    It is starting to feel like a Monty Python sketch; "it is an ex deal, it has expired, it is DEAD!"

    They are frightened of a second referendum in case people decide they want to change their minds, if that happened the Conservative party will implode.
    But a second vote is probably the only way out of this, i don;t mind if they even leave the "stay in the EU" option off the table, at least that way we can choose which flavour of disaster we want and stop the politicians bickering and doing nothing.

    Option 1: Theresa Mays Deal
    Option 2: No Deal
    Option 3: Canada Style Deal
    Option 4: Norway Style Deal
    Option 5: Petition the US to let us join as a state (but only after you get a different President)
    Option 6: I don't know anymore I've gone mAd

    In the meantime, the NHS is underfunded, social care is at breaking point, police numbers have fallen by 20,000 in the last 8 years (and the criminals know it), homeless numbers are sky rocketing, working peole are relying on food banks to survive, the national debt is still huge, the economy is slowing, teachers are in revolt, the transport system is a joke, prisons are overcrowded, we treat the disabled like beggars and beggars like vermin, the energy infrastructure is dangersously inadequate, we have no plan for future industrial growth and investment levels are at record lows.

    If I have missed out any of our current governemental disasters, I appologise. It would be nice if the political classes stopped worrying about who was in power and how long they can hang on to power and actually dealt with some of the real issues.

    I despise politicians and I hate Brexit!

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  9. #65
    jumping on eggshells sp88's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arbiec View Post
    the NHS is underfunded, social care is at breaking point, police numbers have fallen by 20,000 in the last 8 years (and the criminals know it), homeless numbers are sky rocketing, working peole are relying on food banks to survive, the national debt is still huge, the economy is slowing, teachers are in revolt, the transport system is a joke, prisons are overcrowded, we treat the disabled like beggars and beggars like vermin
    all of which has happened during the 26 years of being integrated with the e.u.



    i'm just joshing .......
    "i know enough to know what's instantly forgettable"

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  11. #66

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    Quote Originally Posted by sp88 View Post
    all of which has happened during the 26 years of being integrated with the e.u.



    i'm just joshing .......
    No, I agree completely. Politicians have always been a waste of space.

    I am just saying they might not want to spend all of their time trying to piss on the neighbours garden when their own house is on fire!

    It is great to see how different politics is in the UK and the US though.

    On one side you have a failed leader who is obsessed with a single idea that the legislature won't agree to which has left the government in paralysis and on the other side of the Atlantic theres... Oh wait a minute!

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  13. #67
    Super Moderator Misrule's Avatar
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    And so it continues... Another week, another missed deadline, another deranged plan. The latest, called the Malthouse Compromise (after the guy who suggested the sides should talk) is generating a bit of excitement on the Tory side of the House of Commons. However, it is simply a re-hash of some ideas that have been firmly, and repeatedly, rejected by the EU. The basic intent is to prevent a hard border on the island of Ireland. The current agreed method is know as "the backstop" and is intended to be used if no agreement can be reached on trade, etc. However, it has been seized on by various interests as being too subservient to the EU.
    So, now they want to go back to the maximum facilitation (maxfac) idea that technology will be able to remove the need for a hard border. <sigh> The people who suggest these things have obviously never been to the border between Northen Ireland and the Republic. Some facts for you:
    The border is about 500km (310 miles) long. It is not a natural border and does not follow the line of mountain or river. It is a very squiggly line on a map that makes very little sense on the ground. It separates towns from their natural hinterland; it cuts through villages and communities; it cuts through farms; and even cuts through a few houses. Along that border, there are 268 crossing points and (it is estimated) about 25-30 million vehicle crossings per year.
    By way of contrast, the border between the US and Canada is almost 9000km (5250 miles) long but only has 119 crossing points!
    In the border region, people cross for work, school, to go shopping, medical attention, farming, etc, etc. Public services co-operate on emergency services, water, roads, medical cover, etc, etc. A hardened security border in the past became a focus of discontent for the local residents, and its personnel an obvious target. The border has been there for about 100 years and locals on both sides have been adroit at exploiting the administrative differences (often tax based). Smuggling won't stop, but a hard border would encourage the more robust smuggling operations (run by paramilitary groups) to take control.

    Even if this latest magical idea were to be supported in the House of Commons this evening; it ain't going anywhere. I suppose, eventually, the Uk Government will face reality. I wouldn't bet my house on it, though.

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  15. #68

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    Quote Originally Posted by Misrule View Post

    Even if this latest magical idea were to be supported in the House of Commons this evening; it ain't going anywhere. I suppose, eventually, the Uk Government will face reality. I wouldn't bet my house on it, though.
    No chance of any politician facing reality;
    The Labour leadership are living in their fantasy world where Brexit brings down the government and they get to take charge and usher in a socialist utopia.
    Theresa May has a fantasy world where everyone agrees she was right all along and votes for her deal.
    Jacob Rees Mogg has a fantasy world where a hard Brexit magically brings back the British Empire so he can dominate Johnny Foreigner (this includes you Irish upstarts and the colonists across the atlantic).
    The Liberals have a fantasy where they wake up in the shower and the last 15 years didn't happen at all (coalition government? what coalition government?)

    I have a fantasy where I am a moon goblin and I live off psychodelic cheese - but that's just cos Brexit has had an impact on my mental stability.

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  17. #69
    jumping on eggshells sp88's Avatar
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    there is a theory that, following brexit, the uk is suddenly going to become a highly desirable haven for investment - the reason being that there is currently a whole lot of money being held back waiting to see what kind of brexit/europe we end up with and the uk is about to become almost virgin territory akin to a frontier economy

    there's also a theory that bigfoot exists, of course, so ........



    in the uk, we're still being shielded from much of the fear in europe that the straining structure might soon crack and that brexit could be a catalyst rather than an exception - the irony that it's british action threatening to hand more political power within europe to germany isn't lost on us tho
    "i know enough to know what's instantly forgettable"

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  19. #70
    Die Another Day BondJmsBond's Avatar
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    What are products that we here in America could buy that directly support England?

    My first thought was Cadbury chocolates, but a quick look says it's owned by Mondelez International, an American confectionery company - and the Cadbury chocolates we eat here in the US are made by Hershey. sheesh.

    Rolls-Royce is a bit of a stretch since I can barely afford to keep my 1992 chevy S-10 on the road....

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