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Thread: Brexit triggered - The Brexit plan

  1. #151
    Super Moderator Misrule's Avatar
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    So, Boris is getting his General Election on December 12th and the campaigns have started. The two main parties are promising lavish spending as if it was a normal election. They wish it was a normal election, but it isn't; it's a Brexit election. No point in canvassing on Brexit as people are sick of it and have already made up their minds. The state of play right now is

    The Tories (Conservative Party) have a lead of about 10 points in the polls. Having been dragged to the right by the Brexiteers and having agreed a pretty hard Brexit, many moderate MP's have decided not to stand again. Nigel Farage's new company, the Brexit Party, threatened to stand against the Tories, which would have seriously split the vote. Farage backed down and has said they will not stand against any Tory MP. Will moderate Tory voters turn out or will they hold their noses and vote for a different party?

    The main opposition Labour Party, headed by a 1970's left-winger, Jeremy Corbyn, is only focused on forming a Labour-led government - the keys of No 10 Downing Street. They dithered on Brexit for 3 years and any position they have taken has sounded half-hearted. The last time out, Corbyn enthused a new wave of young voters. Can he repeat the trick? Or will they drift to more obviously pro-EU parties? The young and well educated were much more likely to support remain and Labour isn't really a remain party.

    The "other" party in English politics, the Liberal Democrats, is the only explicitly remain party. They have promised to revoke Article 50 and to stay in the EU. But they will not be in the majority. However, they are expected to do well and to take votes (if not many seats) from other parties who support leaving. An electoral pact has been made with two smaller parties - The Greens and Plaid Cymru (Welsh Nationalists) - not to stand against each other so as to optimise the remain seats. They will not support Boris Johnson, but might support a Labour led government. Maybe...

    In Scotland, the Scottish National Party (SNP) is expected (with the Lib Dems) to deprive the Tories of any seats. They will not support Boris Johnson, but would support Labour if they get another Independence Referendum (which they might win). However, any support is unlikely to be a formal coalition but a case by case basis.

    The Northern Ireland Unionists (of all stripes) are fiercely opposed to Boris Johnson's deal with the EU. They will win around 10 seats (as always) but it isn't clear what government they would support.

    So, a very uncertain picture. It seems unlikely that any single party will have a majority in the House of Commons. Who will be in a position to form a government? Unless the Tories have a majority, they will not be able to get support from other parties. Corbyn might, but with strings and constraints. Some sort of coalition? A confidence and supply arrangement? Or case by case support?
    Brexit ain't over. It has barely even started! After a government is formed, what will they be able to pass through Parliament? By January 31? And there will be years of negotiations with the EU after that...

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  3. #152
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    I know the Tories are leading in the polls right now, but let me run down on the last three elections:

    2015: Cameron makes a gamble to unite his party by proposing an in-out referendum. He's been in coalition with the Lib Dems. Surprisingly, the Conservatives overwhelm the electorate, winning a working majority. The victory is so total that Nick Clegg (the leader of the Lib Dems) lost his seat (not 100% sure of this).
    2016: I don't know if anyone was actually thinking that the UK would ever start the process of leaving. Surely, if they had, someone should have raised the alarm bells that the Northern Ireland border might pose a huge problem.
    2018: Theresa May calls a general election and loses about 15 seats. She is humiliated and forced to go in some kind of agreement with the DUP to give them a majority.

    I really hope Farange's attempt to give the Tories a majority (by not contesting seats currently held by Tories) massively backfires.

    Something I don't really see much news coverage of (at least as an American watching from across the pond) is the left being Euroskeptical. Usually the debate is framed as right-wing Tories causing massive headaches and dysfunction to the government. I haven't delved into a deep breakdown of the electorate like which regions voted Leave/Remain and how those areas traditionally voted. This makes Corbyn's reticence to take a firm position a bit more understandable, if Labour is just as divided as the Tories are.

    Also the enthusiastic Brexit people are smoking crack if they think striking a deal with the EU will be easy. It took Canada like, 10 years, to hammer out a deal? I know Boris keeps saying to get Brexit over with, but this isn't the "end" of Brexit, not at all.

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  5. #153
    Super Moderator Misrule's Avatar
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    So, tomorrow is polling day and the UK will decide..., maybe.
    Polls show the Tories still leading, but Labour having closed the gap. The Lib Dems faded, but will still do ok (for them). It's very noticeable that analysts, commentators and pollsters are being very cautious about predicting an outcome. Particularly as surveys show one third or more of voters intend to vote "strategically", i.e. not by party affiliation but to achieve a particular Brexit or non-Brexit outcome.
    It's going to be fascinating (and scary).

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  7. #154
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    So I read that some other parties are also pulling candidates in an effort to prevent fracturing the Remain vote too much...this is obviously a load of bollocks and one of the worst subversions of democracy I've seen. What a stupid joke. This is like hyper partisan gerrymandering in the U.S in which districts are drawn so partisan that neither party loses seats. You should see some of the ridiculous maps.

    Anyway, two hours to go before the BBC releases their first exit poll...

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  9. #155
    Super Moderator Misrule's Avatar
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    The exit poll is predicting a Tory majority of 86!! That would be very significant...

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  11. #156

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    The Tories made the whole thing about Brexit (yet again).

    The problem with voting Boris for Breakfast is that once it's over he's going to hang around for lunch and dinner too.
    I think a lot of people are going to find that watching the tories gorge themselves on the less fortunate is enough to make them sick to the stomach and breakfast wasn't as satisfying as they thought it would be.

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  13. #157
    Super Moderator Misrule's Avatar
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    So, Boris has got his majority - 365 seats (out of 650). Some are now suggesting that he will no longer be constrained by the hard Brexiteers in the ERG and can let his cuddly soft Brexit side show. Hmmm, maybe. We'll see.

    Having campaigned with a simple slogan - Get Brexit Done, the message worked very well. However, unfortunate British voters will soon discover that they have only got Brexit started. The next phase starts immediately - getting a trade deal, and there is a tight deadline of the end of 2020. Boris could ask for an extension (and it would be granted) but he will want to avoid giving political ammunition to his opponents. Trade experts are in agreement that the only kinds of trade deal possible in 11 months are, either a simple goods-only deal (which is of limited value to UK who mostly export services), or a deal that is mirrors what happens now (a soft Brexit that the Tories have been against). Any deal that is more complicated will likely take years and will have to be ratified by every EU legislature.

    And, of course, there is poor Jeremy. He lost and lost badly (203 seats) and will surely have to go, and soon. Can Labour find an electable leader who can re-unite the party? That's another tough task for a big tent party that is riven by competing factions.

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  15. #158
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    Quote Originally Posted by Misrule View Post
    So, Boris has got his majority - 365 seats (out of 650). Some are now suggesting that he will no longer be constrained by the hard Brexiteers in the ERG and can let his cuddly soft Brexit side show. Hmmm, maybe. We'll see.

    Having campaigned with a simple slogan - Get Brexit Done, the message worked very well. However, unfortunate British voters will soon discover that they have only got Brexit started. The next phase starts immediately - getting a trade deal, and there is a tight deadline of the end of 2020. Boris could ask for an extension (and it would be granted) but he will want to avoid giving political ammunition to his opponents. Trade experts are in agreement that the only kinds of trade deal possible in 11 months are, either a simple goods-only deal (which is of limited value to UK who mostly export services), or a deal that is mirrors what happens now (a soft Brexit that the Tories have been against). Any deal that is more complicated will likely take years and will have to be ratified by every EU legislature.

    And, of course, there is poor Jeremy. He lost and lost badly (203 seats) and will surely have to go, and soon. Can Labour find an electable leader who can re-unite the party? That's another tough task for a big tent party that is riven by competing factions.
    yeah, Labour for sure needs to determine whether they're far-left or center-left, and to unite the "young and urban" with the "older and working-class" bases. I know Alex Sim-Wise supports Corbyn (or at least voted for him during a Labour leadership election).

    It has been suggested that the Conservatives have been so dominant that they might lose their identity slightly as a lot of the seats they picked up (traditional Labour) will demand more public spending.

    If Boris serves out the full five-year term (and by that I mean no snap election), 2024 will mark a full half-century where only one Labour government has been elected by the people: Tony Blair. (1974 was the year Harold Wilson won a Labour majority.)

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  17. #159
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    So, last few days before Brexit is finalized. BBC reporting that they made new coinage - they had to melt down the original commemorative coinage when the Halloween deadline was missed.

    I really hope Boris is just posturing when he says that the UK and EU have to finalize a post-divorce agreement by the end of this year. Because if he insists on this deadline, the irony is that he may end up with the feared "no-deal Brexit" that the opposition (and even some of his own MPs) worked so hard to prevent. I mean, motherfucker, it took Canada and the EU seven years to negotiate a trade deal that was far less comprehensive. These things do not get negotiated that fast.

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