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Thread: Brexit triggered - The Brexit plan

  1. #81
    Super Moderator Misrule's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arbiec View Post
    Frankly, I would be happy to secede from the UK and throw our lot in with Ireland, but then I voted to stay in the EU.
    There's a thought - a Plaid Cymru freedom campaign. Cymxit? Need to work on the slogan.

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  3. #82
    I work here..? Frosty's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Misrule View Post
    Cymxit? Need to work on the slogan.
    Frankly, that sounds like a new boner pill.
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  5. #83
    Persephone's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arbiec View Post
    I saw that last night and I know he is a Democrat; but the irony of any American politician at the moment lecturing anyone else on agreeing to a deal and then reneging had me in tears of laughter. The Paris accords, the transatlantic trade partnership, the transpacific trade partnership, the North American trade partnership, the Iran deal, the international convention on refugees.

    I'm not on Theresa May's side at all but to call it an agreement is to completely ignore the process as laid down by European procedure. The negotiators draw up a DRAFT agreement which MUST be ratified by BOTH parliaments AND the 27 remaining EU members. Only then is it an agreement, until then it is still a proposal. In dictatorships the head of state has final say, in a democaracy the legislature gets to represent the will of the people.
    Yeah, there's no doubt that DJT is seriously damaging institutions and norms and the general way the world has tried to do things since 1945. I don't know the specifics of the Paris climate accords, but I remember that the GOP was blustering about how a future GOP administration could just walk away from the Iran deal since it was never submitted to the Senate and/or Congress to be ratified. I'm pretty sure they were just bluffing (and any other GOP president would never do that), since ripping the deal up would mean nobody would ever trust the U.S government again, but DJT not a sane person.

    The irony here is that DJT now has a new NAFTA replacement (USMCA), but even before the GOP lost the House, nobody really seriously thought it would be ratified. (I looked it up - it requires 2/3 majority.) I wonder how well that will work out.

    I'm just amazed at Theresa May. What is her plan? What is she doing? Why did she trigger Article 50 so soon? Why delay the final vote for two months? Would losing by 150 votes instead of 200 votes made much of a difference?

    As an addendum: I know heckling has a long tradition, but how did it come about and why is it still allowed? I was listening to the BBC and man those reps in the Commons were literally laughing and snarking over Theresa May.

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  7. #84
    jumping on eggshells sp88's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Misrule View Post
    Cymxit?
    sounds cosy and unthreatening ..... like being offered a chair

    "i know enough to know what's instantly forgettable"

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  9. #85

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    Quote Originally Posted by sp88 View Post
    sounds cosy and unthreatening ..... like being offered a chair

    It is very close to my favourite ever Welsh word - cwtch (pronounced coutch).

    Means to give a cuddle or a hug - as in "you look sad, come here and I'll give you a cwtch!"

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  11. #86

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    Quote Originally Posted by Persephone View Post
    I'm just amazed at Theresa May. What is her plan? What is she doing? Why did she trigger Article 50 so soon? Why delay the final vote for two months? Would losing by 150 votes instead of 200 votes made much of a difference?

    As an addendum: I know heckling has a long tradition, but how did it come about and why is it still allowed? I was listening to the BBC and man those reps in the Commons were literally laughing and snarking over Theresa May.
    When she triggered Article 50 she had a majority in Parliament so as long as she got her own party in line she could have rammed any deal she liked down our throats and we would have had to go with it.

    Thinking she would get a bigger majority she called an election when she had promised not to and whilst she didn't get kicked out, she took a beating. Now she has to have the support of all her party and some others (mostly the Democratic Ulster Party) to win a vote. That gave the fringe elements of her party a sense of their own power so she now has enemies on all sides.

    I think the best guess of her plan is to play for time and run down the clock, in the meantime the press is regularly reporting on how painful a no deal brexit would be so eventually with no time to try anything else she will lay a binary choice before Parliament - Either vote for my deal even if you don't like it or you will have to accept the consequence of a no deal. In that situation, even moderate labour politicians will probably support her deal.
    I quoted some trade figures yesterday, Ireland does 12% of it's trade with the UK a no deal would probably mean a 1 to 2% drop in Gross Domestic Product for Ireland which would hurt. The Germans do just under 6% of their trade with the UK which would be a GDP hit of less than 0.5%, a bump in the road.

    The UK does over 50% of it's trade with the EU that would be a GPD hit of between 4 and 10% if we have a no deal. At that point I may very well be on here begging for food parcels, economic suicide.

    On your last point, until they started televising it, most British people had no idea of the childish antics that our politicians call "debate". If you watch the televised sessions from the Scottish Parliament or the Welsh Assembly, they are no where near as bad.
    I thought that once they realised the TV cameras were showing them in a bad light they would tone things down, if anything they just play up more to try to get noticed. Makes you proud

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  13. #87
    ಠ_ಠ defrabbit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arbiec View Post
    ... At that point I may very well be on here begging for food parcels, economic suicide.
    we got you, bro - 50kg of black jellybeans incoming.




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  15. #88
    Super Moderator Misrule's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Arbiec View Post
    Ireland does 12% of it's trade with the UK a no deal would probably mean a 1 to 2% drop in Gross Domestic Product for Ireland which would hurt.
    The latest estimate is an immediate 4% drop in GDP, followed by a fairly quick recovery over a few years.

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  17. #89
    Die Another Day BondJmsBond's Avatar
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    I wish the US would help our long time friends and allies and put together a package to aid the UK in trade etc. after Brexit if needed. Wouldn't that be the right thing to do?

    Pro-EU Obama and pro-EU Hillary probably would not have helped; consistent with their political positions.
    It looks like Trump and Big Money interests, however, only want to put the screws to England too, even though you'd think anti-EU Trump would support England in this.

    I'll keep hope we will help.
    Last edited by BondJmsBond; 02-15-2019 at 01:51 PM.

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  19. #90
    Super Moderator Misrule's Avatar
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    So, the Brexit story grinds on. Theresa keeps jogging around her treadmill, getting nowhere; but clear, determined, dogged, and futile. The suspicion is increasing that she is running down the clock to create a last minute panic and offer a simple binary choice between the deal that has already been soundly rejected by Parliament; or crash out with no deal. Avoiding no deal is the only thing that might command a majority in the Commons.
    As time passes, the tensions within the two big parties are coming to the fore. 8 Labour (the main opposition party) MPs resigned and will sit as independents; 3 Tory (the government parties) did likewise, all in order to vote to prevent a no deal outcome; and a number of senior government MPs have said they will also resign if necessary.
    On the surface, it all looks calm as if nothing is going on, but the cracks are starting to show.

    On a personal note, I have been talking to a number of English people who live nearby. Most are against Brexit but some have accepted the narrative that is doing the rounds in the UK press and amongst some politicians, that the EU will blink and concede at the final minute. That seems like a misreading of the situation. If the EU were to concede it would be undermining its single greatest achievement, the single market, and it would be putting the interests of a non-member (the UK) ahead of those of its members. Sorry, I can't see that happening and the expectation that it might could lead to seriously damaging decisions on the Uk side.
    But, it won't be long now. Just 5 weeks until B-Day.

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