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Thread: Brexit triggered - The Brexit plan

  1. #91

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    Quote Originally Posted by Misrule View Post

    On a personal note, I have been talking to a number of English people who live nearby. Most are against Brexit but some have accepted the narrative that is doing the rounds in the UK press and amongst some politicians, that the EU will blink and concede at the final minute. That seems like a misreading of the situation. If the EU were to concede it would be undermining its single greatest achievement, the single market, and it would be putting the interests of a non-member (the UK) ahead of those of its members. Sorry, I can't see that happening and the expectation that it might could lead to seriously damaging decisions on the Uk side.
    But, it won't be long now. Just 5 weeks until B-Day.
    You are right, the area I live in voted heavily for leave and when I talk to friends and family they seem to think it will all be okay because the EU will give huge consessions to avoid a no deal in the end. Apart from the statements of the same politicians who have been proven as liars in the run up to the vote, no one seems to have a shred of evidence that the EU will do anytihng of the sort.

    My feelings are that the EU might do some tinkering around the edges of the withdrawal agreement to show that they aren't the bad guys in this and that they have been open from the start but that in the end it will be that choice between a no deal and the Theresa May deal, at that point Parliament will lose it's mind. There is no majority for either.

    In my fantasy land wishes, we will ask for a pause at that point, call a referendum to ask what the populus want now we have a fuller picture; then call the whole thing off and spend the next ten years repairing the damage to our ecomony, reputation and relationships with our European partners.

    In reality I feel that asking for an extension is almost unavoidable and it is flip a coin as to whether it is a no deal or the current deal - both of which leave Britain worse off than as a full member of the EU.

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  3. #92
    Persephone's Avatar
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    Rumblings about if there's a second referendum and "Remain" wins, the "Leave" side will want another one to make it best of three. LOL.

    I'm not the kind that revels in misery, but holy shit this is one utterly fascinating time in UK politics, with eight Labour and three Conservative MPs breaking away to form a new group. Can anyone tell me if that has any immediate impact on the math for a working majority? Info is confusing but it looks like a simple majority is 320 votes, and there were 314 regular MPs + 2 other "unofficial" MPs that are nominally in the Conservative Party? That means that with a loss of three that even one defection (either in the Conservative or DUP) will sink anything, provided that Labour is united in opposing?

    Oh lord this will be a tinderbox. It's too bad that the Queen can't dissolve Parliament or that the Conservative Party can't stage another no-confidence vote until the end of 2019. Can Corbyn do anything, or did he play his only card already?

    Edit: Time to bring out the "Theresa Dismay" or "Mayhem" headlines.
    Last edited by Persephone; 02-21-2019 at 11:55 PM.

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  5. #93
    Die Another Day BondJmsBond's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Persephone View Post
    Rumblings about if there's a second referendum and "Remain" wins, the "Leave" side will want another one to make it best of three. LOL.

    It does look increasingly like there will be a delay and a 2nd referendum. A twist is if the EU doesn't agree to a delay and England will have to hold the fastest referendum ever.
    Or the thing could go through as a No Deal.

    It's a last-minute thriller.

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  7. #94
    Super Moderator Toto's Avatar
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  9. #95
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    We'll swap Britain even-steven...her for President Manchild.
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  11. #96
    Die Another Day BondJmsBond's Avatar
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    Do you guys over there just hate even hearing the word Brexit by now?

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  13. #97
    Super Moderator Misrule's Avatar
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    And so we go again. Another cliffhanger, another vote. This isn't the end, or even the end of the beginning; more like stuck in the middle, somewhere.

    Theresa delayed this vote on the (same) deal while she and others trotted around the EU looking for some flexibility. They didn't get it. But, last night she triumphantly waved a three part agreement as a solution to the backstop problem. Except, it doesn't amount to much and is the same as what was offered in January. Echoes of Neville Chamberlain and "Peace in our time"?
    The vote will take place in the Commons at 1900 UTC (ish). The last time she put it to a vote, it was defeated by a record 230 votes. Therefore, she needs to persuade a net 115 to change their minds. What are her chances? Well, the first blow came this morning when Geoffrey Cox (a legal adviser to the Government and Tory MP) reviewed the document and declared that it hadn't changed much, but maybe had a little less risk that the UK would get stuck in the backstop.
    The parliamentary arithmetic is not going in her favour, so far. The DUP (10 votes) will vote against (again). The hard line Brexiteers (30 or 40 from ERG, plus a few others) will almost certainly do the same. The Lib Dems will also vote against (they want another referendum). We wait for indications from the SNP and Labour.
    Right now (1300 UTC) the deal doesn't look likely to pass.

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  15. #98

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    It was never about getting changes to the agreement. Her strategy has been to run down the clock, create a sense of panic and to play both sides off against the other.
    The political news over here has been filled with ministers telling one side that if they don't vote for the Governement's deal they risk a second referendum and there not being any kind of Brexit and the next day telling the other side that they should vote for the Government's deal or risk a no deal Brexit and the disaster that follows will be all their fault.

    Geoffrey Cox, our Attorney General has just finished speaking to Parliament and will probably need to see a physiotherapist after trying so hard to face both ways at once. The general gist was there is no substantive change to the deal you voted down but you should vote for it anyway.

    I know as a remainer my views are considered tainted but no deal is nightmare scenario, this deal is dreadful for the UK's interests; forgetting the whole thing is the best option.

    You have to take your hat off to the EU negotiators, they have played a blinder throughout, they secured the money, they secured terms that favour the EU and a situation where the UK would have to placate each of the 27 memeber states individually at a future later date in order to get released from the back stop. The French have already openly said they will only release us form the backstop in return for our fishing rights, the Spanish have said they want Gibraltar. The rest haven't even started thinking about what they will ask for.
    Well played Mr Barnier, you saw a weak lame duck UK government (and wider political class) and you tore them to pieces.

    The DUP are the key to the whole thing, if the government gives them an even bigger bribe and they vote for the deal, it might limp through.

    Interesting times
    Last edited by Arbiec; 03-12-2019 at 08:21 AM.

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  17. #99
    Artificial Unintelligence kogi's Avatar
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    Solution to Brexit is easy. Northern Ireland should merge with Ireland. What are the English doing in Northern Ireland anyway! English should stay on their main island. Problem solved. This is so obvious that I expect May to put forward the solution in Parliament today.
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  19. #100
    Super Moderator Misrule's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kogi View Post
    Solution to Brexit is easy. Northern Ireland should merge with Ireland. What are the English doing in Northern Ireland anyway! English should stay on their main island. Problem solved. This is so obvious that I expect May to put forward the solution in Parliament today.
    We haven't finished with the last war over that issue and you want us to start another?
    Won't happen for a few decades, at least.

    BTW, this useful flow chart from the BBC shows the process we're in:


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